Coeli Renewable Opportunities Monthly Report December 2023 (I USD)

The Coeli Renewable Opportunity fund gained 7.4% net of fees and expenses in December. It is up 3.2% since the inception on February 6, 2023.

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Coeli Renewable Opportunities Monthly Report December 2023 (I USD)

1) Share Class I USD The Coeli Renewable Opportunity fund gained 7.4% net of fees and expenses in December. It is up 3.2% since the inception on February 6, 2023. December was the fund’s best month since inception in February. While the outperformance to the two most comparable indices, the Wilderhill New Energy Global index (NEX) and the iShares Global Clean Energy (ICLN) has narrowed, the fund still closed the year ahead by 27% and 25%, respectively. It is worth noting that while the fund’s performance bottomed at down 11.5% in early November versus a 36-37% loss for the two reference indices, the fund rose almost as much as the indices off the bottom, i.e. 17% for the fund compared to a gain of 22% for the indices. We believe it validates our strategy that the fund outperforms by more than 3x on the way down and capture almost 80% of the long-only reference indices’ return in the rally off the bottom. While we were too early calling the bottom in early October, the expected year-end relief rally played out in November and December. Moreover, while renewable energy equities only performed in line with the market in November, they, like we had alluded to in the previous monthly report, caught up in December as small caps finally caught a bid. Obviously, this was partly driven by short squeezes as positioning and sentiment were still relatively bearish in early December. Our long holdings added 10.4% to the NAV, while the shorts lost 3.0% in December. All but one of the themes made a profit. Net exposure was in the 60-70% range over the month and ended at 64%. MARKET COMMENT – GOLDILOCKS BECAME CONSENSUS! The S&P 500 rose 4.4% in December, following on from the 9% increase in November and closing the year less than 1% from its all-time high in January 2022. The key reason for the rally was again lower rate expectations as inflation continued to surprise on the downside and the economy and labour markets on the upside. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bills dropped by 45bps to 3.85%, a level last seen in July before the big sell off in small cap equities started. Fueling the rally was FED chairman Powell emphasizing at the FOMC meeting in early December that rate cuts will happen long before inflation has reached the 2% target. This combined with the new FED dot-plot indicating three rate cuts in 2024 cemented the view that a soft landing was not only possible but even likely. Goldilocks became consensus and the bond market is at the moment pricing in as many as five 25bps cuts in 2024 with a ~60% probability of a cut already in March. We admit that we last year did not subscribe to a soft-landing scenario where inflation would come down without any significant slowdown in the economy. However, it admittedly looks likely and three or more rate cuts in 2024 is a great backdrop for the renewable energy space, one of the largest thematic losers in 2023 despite enjoying one of the strongest long term fundamental tailwinds. While valuations are not as depressed as at the beginning of November, we are still very optimistic to the year for the broader decarbonization space. First, valuations in most of the subsectors have come down significantly over the last three years. In some cases, companies are valued on their existing assets only, i.e. with no value attributed to growth. Second, the supply chain and inflation linked problems that caused significant negative earnings surprises are in the rearview mirror. However, the difficulties have helped some of the leading companies to advance their market shares during the downturn. Moreover, the competitive landscape has become less intense as numerous companies have either withdrawn from the sector or scaled back their ambitions. Contrasting with the situation three years ago, private capital is not as aggressively entering the sector, which is positive for established players and their expected returns on investments. Third, electricity prices have more than kept up with inflation. An undersupplied power market is a good starting point for more renewable investments irrespective of decarbonization goals. Finally, renewable energy equities were among the worst hit sectors by the rise in interest rates during 2023. We believe it is likely that they will be among the largest relative beneficiaries when rates fall as well. Still, there are always some clouds on the horizon creating trading opportunities on both the long and the short side of our fund. One of the biggest uncertainties near term is election risk and in particular the US election, which kicks off this month with the primaries for the US presidential election. WILL AND CAN TRUMP KILL THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT? Our short answer to both questions is that we doubt it. Even if the Republicans win both Houses of Congress and the presidency, we doubt that there is an appetite for a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, there might be adjustments to the law and this risk will constitute significant noise for US renewable energy equities until the election. Moreover, this noise will only intensify the better the Republicans do in the polls. Former president Donald Trump, who is a strong favourite to win the Republican Party’s primaries, is campaigning on gutting much of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and to dismantle President Biden’s climate change policies. We can only hope that he will tone down the rhetoric in the general election to appeal to centrist voters, but there are no guarantees. What would it take to repeal the IRA? The Republicans would need a red sweep, meaning winning the presidency and a simple majority in both the House and the Senate. The IRA was passed in a partisan vote by the Democrats under budget reconciliation, a special parliamentary procedure that overrides the Senate’s filibuster rules, which means that it can similarly be repealed or altered by a simple majority of republican senators. Before discussing the likelihood of a repeal, what would be the consequences if the Republicans would gut the IRA? First, according to BNP Paribas, about USD 700bn to USD 1.1tr of capital expenditures over the next 5 to 7 years rely on the IRA. This represents about 5-7% of all US corporate capex across those years. Factoring in the multiplier effect, the impact on US economic growth could be substantial. Moreover, the IRA has supposedly created more than 100,000 manufacturing jobs already and researchers with the Foundation for Renewable Energy & Environment estimates that IRA could help to create 900,000 jobs per year over the next decade, totaling more than 9 million jobs. Compared to a labour force of about 167 million, we take that estimate with a grain of salt, but it is obvious that there is a significant positive contribution to employment. Second, it is estimated that 70-80% of these jobs will be created in red or purple states, i.e. republican dominated or swing states that could go both ways in the election. Obviously, a repeal of the IRA subsidy would jeopardize many of these jobs, a highly unpopular outcome. Finally, unless Trump intends to prohibit the construction of renewable energy installations, undermining US manufacturing of renewable energy equipment will play into the hands of the Chinese who are dominating most segments of the renewable energy industry. Facing these consequences, why would the Republicans try to repeal the IRA? For many climate change sceptics, the IRA is a simply a waste of money. However, the IRA does almost more to the other objectives of the act, i.e. energy security, re-shoring supply chains and creating manufacturing jobs in the US. This is a fact we believe will be hard for the Republicans to ignore. In Trump’s first presidential period, he talked constantly about creating blue-collar jobs for Americans and he restricted import of foreign manufactured goods, especially Chinese, in order to help US corporations. Repealing the IRA would be contrary to these goals. Additionally, many of the republican members of Congress have selfishly taken credit for bringing manufacturing jobs to their counties and states, even though none of them voted in favour of the IRA. For these politicians to vote for a repeal would be a risky step considering that there is always another election for congress around the corner. Moreover, a full repeal looks unlikely considering that the last time the Republicans controlled both Houses and the presidency, Trump did not manage to keep his campaign promise of revoking the much-hated Affordable Care or ‘Obama care’ act. We believe the IRA has significantly more bipartisan support than Obama care. Furthermore, the investment tax credits (ITC) and the production tax credits (PTC) that preceded the IRA were both born during republican presidencies and have been extended ever since, including during Trump’s four years in power. Rather than eliminating subsidies, Trump introduced tariffs on Chinese products to bolster US manufacturers and to hurt the Chinese. Revoking the IRA would be doing the opposite, and we find it unlikely. Instead of a full repeal, we do fear though that a red sweep might lead to modifications in certain aspects of the IRA. For instance, the Republicans have shown limited enthusiasm for direct consumer subsidies, suggesting that the USD 7,500 electric vehicle tax credit could be at risk. Similarly, direct support for residential solar, although part of the ITC since 2006, might face reductions. On the other hand, it is hard to envision the Republicans withdrawing support for nuclear energy or significantly altering manufacturing tax credits, given the clear negative impact such moves would have on their own constituencies. A bigger fear we have is that a Republican president, with or without a Congressional majority, will reinterpret the guidelines for the IRA. The executive branch cannot eliminate a tax credit, but it can make access to the credit much more strident. This could have a significant impact on tax credit adders e.g. the important domestic content adder, which is so complex that the current administration has not yet been able to create the guidelines. All in all, we doubt the IRA will be repealed, but there is little doubt that the White House occupied by a Democrat is better for the renewable energy universe. We are not making any prediction on electoral outcomes, but this uncertainty will create volatility through the year. However, since Trump started campaigning on repealing the IRA, it has been widely discussed by the sell side and the buy side have already factored in the risk. Any indication that the Democrats are in the lead would therefore be a significant positive catalyst. We will follow the developments closely and believe the fund should benefit from the opportunities on both the long and the short side during the year. FUND PERFORMANCE – BEST MONTH ON RECORD The fund gained 7.4% (I USD) in December, its best month to date. The profit was broad-based, with all but one investment theme showing positive returns. Long positions were particularly impactful, contributing 10.4% to the Net Asset Value (NAV). The robust rally in renewables and other small-cap stocks over the past two months was partially fueled by short squeezes in heavily shorted stocks, though not all sectors benefited equally. Notably, our 'EU Hydrogen' theme, which holds only short positions, was the third-best performer, adding 0.8% to the NAV in December. Moreover, it also yielded profits during the two-month rally spanning November and December. This indicates the strong cross-sectional dispersion in this sector. At the opposite end of the dispersion spectrum was the ‘Grid’ theme which emerged as the top performer for the second consecutive month, adding 1.9% to the NAV in December. As we have described in previous monthly reports, this theme includes companies that sell products and services related to the electrical grid. With anticipated improvements in permitting processes in both the US and Europe, transmission and interconnection are expected to become bottlenecks for the development of renewable energy in these regions. We are increasingly optimistic to this theme which only includes long positions for now. Meanwhile, the 'Solar' theme ranked as the second-best performer in December, enhancing the NAV by 1.7%. A recurrent topic in our monthly updates, this theme maintains the largest gross capital, although positioning has become more balanced and not as long-biased as before. Despite the sub-sector’s robust rally, the theme’s December performance was a bit disappointing. Our long positions in utility-scale solar lagged behind the Solar Index (TAN US), while one of our short positions in a solar module manufacturer surged by nearly 75% in value during the month. However, this short position has given back half of its December gains so far in January. The last theme to mention this month is the ‘Wind’ theme which finally started to work, adding 0.7% to NAV in December. The driver of the performance was Vestas (VWS) which increased 13% in December and almost 60% since the bottom in early October. The company reported onshore orders totaling almost 6.2GW in the fourth quarter, with 4.7GW designated for the US. We have waited all year for a hockey stick in Vestas’s order intake and are not too surprised that it finally happened. For the entire year, including unannounced Q4 orders, the total could reach nearly 18GW, surpassing both our optimistic initial estimate and the market consensus’. Next year will likely be even better as there are still a lot of IRA induced US orders to be announced and as Siemens Gamesa has pulled back from the onshore market, Vestas is well positioned for market share gains. Additionally, offshore wind orders have yet to surge, but as optimism returns among developers and it becomes evident that offshore wind projects are delayed rather than cancelled, Vestas stands to see a substantial increase in order intake over the coming years. Finally, it is notable that the majority of Vestas Q4 orders are scheduled for execution in 2025 and beyond. This is somewhat dampening the expectations to 2024 earnings, which are currently challenged by overcapacity in certain manufacturing plants, particularly in the US, and by low margin legacy contracts secured during the pandemic. However, the market is already well aware of the below-target margins for 2024. More important, the recent surge in order intake underscores the viability of Vestas’s 10% margin target for 2025. We believe Vestas will continue to trade on order intake and plan to increase our position if the stock sells off on disappointing Q1 results. As we look forward to 2024, we remain optimistic about the broader renewable energy equities space. Despite anticipating continued strong cross-sectional dispersion, we foresee a shift towards a more stock-picker-oriented market within and across the different sub-sectors. This scenario is ideal for our strategy, and we look forward to updating you again over the coming months. Sincerely Vidar Kalvoy & Joel Etzler   [/et_pb_text][et_pb_team_member _builder_version="3.0.89" name="Joel Etzler" background_layout="light" header_level="h6" position="Portfolio Manager, Coeli Renewable Opportunities" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on" /][et_pb_team_member _builder_version="3.0.89" name="Vidar Kalvoy" background_layout="light" header_level="h6" position="Portfolio Manager, Coeli Renewable Opportunities" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on" /][et_pb_post_title _builder_version="3.0.89" title="on" meta="off" author="off" date="off" categories="off" comments="off" featured_image="off" featured_placement="below" text_color="dark" text_background="off" border_style="solid" module_class="gen-single-news-heading-module gen-trustee-single-headline" date_format="d M, Y" border_style_all="solid" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on" /][et_pb_text admin_label="Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund R-SEK" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" module_class="gen-table-module" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]

Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund

Performance in Share Class Currency1 MthYTD3 yrsSince incep
Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund - R SEK1.30%-0.93%3.38%14.52%
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Gustav Fransson

Portfolio Manager of Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund [/et_pb_text][et_pb_image _builder_version="3.0.89" src="https://coeli.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Alexander-Larsson-Vahlman.jpg" show_in_lightbox="off" url_new_window="off" use_overlay="off" always_center_on_mobile="on" force_fullwidth="off" show_bottom_space="on" custom_margin="||21px|" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on" /][et_pb_text admin_label="Namn och title" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" module_class="gen-single-ingress-module" custom_margin="||40px|" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]

Alexander Wahlman

Senior Analyst [/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Top Holdings (%)" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" custom_margin="||20px|" module_class="gen-trustee-single-table" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]
Top Holdings (%)
LANSBK 1.25% 18-17.09.254.1%
NORDEA HYP 1.0% 19-17.09.25 4.1%
SWEDBK 1.0% 19-18.06.254.1%
WHITE MOUNT FRN 17-22.09.473.9%
B2 HOLDING FRN 19-28.05.242.9%
  [/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version="3.0.89" custom_padding="23px||23px|" custom_padding_last_edited="on|phone" box_shadow_position="outer" use_custom_gutter="on" gutter_width="4" custom_padding_tablet="0px||0px|" module_class="gen-pop-up-row gen-wide-sidebar-content-row gen-kapitalforvaltare-row" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"][et_pb_column type="1_3"][et_pb_blurb admin_label="Joel" _builder_version="3.0.89" url_new_window="off" use_icon="off" use_circle="off" use_circle_border="off" icon_placement="top" use_icon_font_size="off" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" image="https://coeli.se/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Joel-Etzler-1.jpg" animation="off" text_orientation="center" header_text_align="center" body_text_align="center" alt="Fondförvaltare Joel Etzler" border_style_all="solid"]

Joel

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Joel Etzler

Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities

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Christofer Halldin

Fondförvaltare Coeli Circulus

Christofer förvaltar Coeli Circulus sedan starten augusti 2022. Innan det arbetade han som chef för den aktiva aktie- & ränteförvaltningen hos Handelsbanken (HB) Fonder. Där var han med och utvecklade Handelsbanken Fonder till en av Sveriges mest framgångsrika aktie- och ränteförvaltare under slutet av 2010-talet, då HB Fonder hade störst nettoinflöden på den svenska fondmarknaden flera år i rad. HB Fonder utsågs även under den tiden till både årets förvaltare och årets hållbara förvaltare av aktörer som Prospera, Privata Affärer, Söderberg & Partner, Länsförsäkringar m fl. Innan Christofer utsågs till chef för den aktiva förvaltningen förvaltade han under flera år olika globalmandat. Han har också arbetat sju år, 2007-2013, som förvaltare i USA av både Amerika-, Brasilien- och Latinamerikafonden på HB Fonder.➜ Kontakt:christofer.halldin@coeli.seLinkedInTwitterInstagram [/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type="1_3"][et_pb_blurb admin_label="Vidar" _builder_version="3.0.89" url_new_window="off" use_icon="off" use_circle="off" use_circle_border="off" icon_placement="top" use_icon_font_size="off" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" image="https://coeli.se/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Vidar-Kalvoy.jpg" animation="off" text_orientation="center" header_text_align="center" body_text_align="center" alt="Portfolio Manager Vidar Kalvoy" border_style_all="solid"]

Vidar

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Vidar Kalvoy

Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities

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Joakim By

Fondförvaltare Coeli Circulus

Joakim förvaltar Coeli Circulus sedan starten augusti 2022. Innan det arbetade han som förvaltare av Amerika Småbolag hos Handelsbanken Fonder. Han förvaltade Amerika Småbolag från 2015 och vann flera utmärkelser för den goda avkastningen i fonden som också växte kraftigt under hans tid som förvaltare. När Joakim lämnade fonden i början på 2022 hade den över 20 miljarder kronor i förvaltat kapital. Innan han förvaltade Amerika Småbolag ansvarade han bland annat för den bredare fonden Amerika Tema, 2013-2017, och globalfonden Global Tema, 2009-2013, hos Handelsbanken Fonder.➜ Kontakt: joakim.by@coeli.seLinkedInTwitterInstagram [/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type="1_3"][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version="3.0.89" custom_padding="23px||23px|" custom_padding_last_edited="on|phone" box_shadow_position="outer" use_custom_gutter="on" gutter_width="4" custom_padding_tablet="0px||0px|" module_class="gen-pop-up-row gen-wide-sidebar-content-row gen-kapitalforvaltare-row" disabled_on="off|off|off" disabled="off"][et_pb_column type="1_2"][et_pb_blurb admin_label="Joel" _builder_version="3.0.89" url_new_window="off" use_icon="off" use_circle="off" use_circle_border="off" icon_placement="top" use_icon_font_size="off" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" image="https://coeli.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Joel1.jpg" animation="off" text_orientation="center" header_text_align="center" body_text_align="center" alt="Fondförvaltare Joel Etzler" border_style_all="solid"]

Joel

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Joel Etzler

Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities

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Joel Etzler

Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities

  • Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities
  • Joined Coeli in 2019
  • More than 13 years of experience from the financial industry
  • MSc from the Royal Institute of Technology

Joel Etzler is Portfolio Manager and Founder of the Coeli Renewable Opportunities fund and has more than 13 years in the industry, with investment experience from both the public and private equity side. Etzler joined Kalvoy at Horizon Asset in London in 2012 and spent five years before that within Private Equity at Morgan Stanley. Etzler started his investment career within the technology sector at Swedbank Robur in Stockholm, 2006.

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type="1_2"][et_pb_blurb admin_label="Vidar" _builder_version="3.0.89" url_new_window="off" use_icon="off" use_circle="off" use_circle_border="off" icon_placement="top" use_icon_font_size="off" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" image="https://coeli.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Vidar-Kalvoy-1.jpg" animation="off" text_orientation="center" header_text_align="center" body_text_align="center" alt="Portfolio Manager Vidar Kalvoy"]

Vidar

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Vidar Kalvoy

Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities

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Vidar Kalvoy

Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities

  • Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities
  • Joined Coeli in 2019
  • 25 years of experience from the financial industry
  • MBA from IESE, MSc from Norwegian School of Economics and Business Adm.
Vidar Kalvoy is the lead Portfolio Manager and Founder of Coeli Renewable Opportunities fund. He has 25 years of experience from portfolio management and equity research. For nine years he was responsible for the energy investments at Horizon Asset in London, a market neutral hedge fund. Kalvoy also did energy investments at MKM Longboat, another hedge fund in London.  He started his financial career as a sell side equity research analyst focusing on the technology and telecom sector, working six years in Oslo and Frankfurt. Prior to working in finance, he was a second lieutenant in the Norwegian Navy. [/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version="3.0.89" background_position="top_left" background_repeat="repeat" background_size="initial" module_class="gen-single-news-content-row gen-trustee-single-content-row" custom_padding="0px|||" custom_padding_phone="23px|||" custom_padding_last_edited="on|tablet" module_class_2="gen-trustee-single-sidebar" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"][et_pb_column type="2_3"][et_pb_text admin_label="Tillbaka-knapp" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" custom_margin_tablet="||17px|" custom_margin_last_edited="on|desktop" module_class="gen-back-button hide-in-print" border_style_all="solid"] Note that the information below describes the share class (I SEK), which is a share class reserved for institutional investors. Investments in other share classes generally have other conditions regarding, among other things, fees, which affects the share class' return. The information below regarding returns therefore differs from the returns in other share classes. Return to Fund page [/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Datum / Skriv ut" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" custom_margin_tablet="||17px|" custom_margin_last_edited="on|desktop" module_class="gen-single-news-date-module gen-trustee-print-module hide-in-print" locked="on" border_style_all="solid"] [blog_post_date]
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Utveckling september
Fondens värde sjönk -5,1 procent i september (andelsklass I SEK). Stoxx600 (brett Europaindex) sjönk under samma period med -3,4 procent och HedgeNordics NHX Equities var preliminärt oförändrat. Motsvarande siffror för 2021 är en ökning om +21,6 procent för fonden, +14,0 procent för Stoxx600 och +6,4 procent för NHX Equities.  
Equity markets / Macro environment
After seven consecutive months of positive performance the world’s stock markets were poised for some degree of turbulence. Volatility was especially high in some equities and on Monday, September 20, the highest nominal volume ever traded was reached in options on the S&P500 (!) The broad European index fell by 3.4 percent in September compared to the S&P500 which fell by 4.8 percent. The fund also had its first negative performance since October last year with a decline of 5,1 percent. More about that later. Despite high levels for many stock indices, sentiment among investors has been relatively gloomy. Bank of America's monthly survey recently showed that only 13 percent of managers expect a positive market in the future, which is the lowest figure since April 2020 (and that was clearly wrong). The reasons cited are China's growth problems, the crisis-stricken Chinese real estate giant Evergrande, the development of the delta variant, declining profit growth and, of course, rising inflation. However, they are still overweight equities which is perhaps not so strange when you have to pay to lend your capital to countries. As interest rates rose at the end of the month, the German 10-year interest rate followed with a giant step from - 0.25 percent to - 0.17 percent… The picture below is an overall risk indicator, and we are around zero (neutral). The news flow in September began with record high inflation figures in Europe at +3.0 which exceeded market expectations. The corresponding figure in July was + 2.2 percent. It was the fastest growth rate since November 2011 and several countries recorded up to five percent in inflation rate. The pressure on the ECB to reduce its support measures is increasing. On Friday, October 1, new inflation figures came in for September, which showed a further acceleration in the inflation rate by +3.4 per cent. The rate of change can be mostly attributed to rising energy prices that are starting to create real problems in the world's economies as well as agricultural shifts. The picture below shows that food prices are at record high levels over the past 60 years. The biggest losers are the poorest part of the population. In the slightly longer term it is forecasted that it is not excessive demand that will drive inflation, but rather a limited supply, and then both in terms of products and labour. At the end of September, long queues were reported at petrol stations across the UK when fuel ran out and there were not enough truck drivers to refuel. Prime Minister Boris Johnson urges his citizens to refuel sensibly and at a normal rate. You wanted Brexit, so there you go. In sheer desperation, Johnson has now issued 5,000 temporary short-term visas for temporary drivers. Good luck. M25 spring 2022? Below are European gas prices which have risen in a seemingly uncontrolled fashion and recorded the highest September prices ever. A silent prayer for the mild winter. We guess that this development will soon be a major topic in the media, and it will undoubtedly create various problems and somewhat reduce next year's expected growth. It feels reassuring that Per Bolund (Swedish Green Party MP) claims that there is no electricity shortage in Sweden because then the costs for ordinary people would be unbearably high during the winter (which of course they will be). Rising gas and electricity prices have led European politicians to start discussing billion-dollar subsidies (in euros) to households and manufacturers who will experience sharply rising electricity bills over the winter. Source: Bloomberg Henrik Svensson, site manager at the oil-fired power plant in Karlshamn (south Sweden), does not agree with Per Bolund that we have a surplus of electricity in the country. For large parts of September, the power plant ran at full capacity and burned 240k liters of oil per hour. Henrik Svensson believes that it is electricity shortages and high electricity prices that are behind the high production. He also says that there is a lack of planned power production in southern Sweden and that it will take many years before the electricity grid is strengthened and new electricity production is in place. Sweden today burns more oil than we have done in 10 years. A gigantic energy policy and climate policy failure signed by the Green Party. Source: Steget efter Winning candidate for this year's Christmas presents below. The change in the US 10-year interest rate created considerable pressure on, primarily, growth stocks at the end of the month. The performance dispersion for different sectors was very large in September with oil shares as a clear winner. This was also felt in the last days of September. Source: Bloomberg Below is the development for the US 10-year interest rate. The turbulence in the stock market was caused by the change in interest rate level breaking through on the upside, as can be seen in the chart. There have been countless attempts to explain the turbulence in recent weeks. The recent and significant amount of options being exercised, Evergrande, interventions by the Chinese government, Fed tapering, Bank of England expected to raise interest rates, delta variant, inflation, bottlenecks in production, difficulties in finding staff, rising energy prices and declining growth rates. We think it is enough to look at the picture below. Rising interest rates hit hard at growth companies' valuations. Goodbye Mutti and thank you for an extraordinary effort for Europe! Source: Nyhetsbyrån TT She was politically in a class of her own during the euro crisis ten years ago and Sweden also has her to thank for a lot. Despite a somewhat weaker performance in recent years, German citizens have experienced significantly better economic development than many others. On September 29, the covid-19 restrictions in Sweden were finally removed and we can now, in principle, start living a normal life again. The number of bookings for winter holidays skyrocketed to the great joy of the tourist and transport industry. In recent months, tourism activity in the Mediterranean has been "extraordinary" and much better than forecasted before the summer. Luxury travel is also reaching new heights. Private jet passengers to Mallorca increased by +70 percent in July compared to July 2019 with an average of 83 private jets per day landing in Palma. If you want to rent a yacht, you are being referred to next year as basically everything has already been fully booked. We now belong to a minority group. Passively managed capital exceeds actively managed capital for the first time ever. This will give us more opportunities as mispricing increases. In addition to being one of the world's best stock markets this year, Sweden also has the most listed companies in the entire EU. Bloomberg drew attention to the fact that there are now around 1,000 listed companies on the various trading platforms in Stockholm. More than 80 percent are smaller companies, and the list is filled with new listings every day until Christmas! For us, it is interesting as we are constantly looking for new potential core holdings. In recent weeks, we have identified one which we write about under Long Positions. We end this section with a picture that well reflects today's political level. Source: Kluddniklas
Long positions
Truecaller During September, we did a lot of work on the Swedish company Truecaller which will go public on October 8th. Truecaller is one of the most interesting companies we’ve seen in recent years. Truecaller has developed a phone application that can, among other things, identify unwanted calls from, for example, telemarketers. The app is one of the top ten most downloaded applications globally, and in some of the main markets such as India, Nigeria and Indonesia, it is one of the three most downloaded apps. As a Swedish company with headquarters in Stockholm, the firm has chosen to list on the Swedish stock exchange, which we are very happy about. Truecaller was founded in 2009 by Alan Mamedi and Nami Zarringhalam. They met at the Royal Technical University in Stockholm, and they continue to be active in the company as the CEO and Chief Strategic Officer (CSO), respectively. When they released the first version of the app, they received 10,000 downloads within one week. By 2013 they had reached over 10 million users globally and in Q2 2021 they had reached 278 million monthly users. Throughout their journey, Truecaller has attracted several well-known investors such as Sequoia Capital (early investors in Apple, Whatsapp, and Zoom among others), Atomica (Skype-founder Niklas Zennström’s investment company), and Kleiner Perkins (early investors in Google, Amazon, and Spotify among others). Until recently, revenue streams have mainly consisted of income from in-app advertising. In addition to this, there is a premium version where paying users can get additional functionalities. That business accounted for around 20 percent of revenues in 2020. During the fall of 2020, Truecaller launched a corresponding offering that targets corporates.  This part of the business allows B2B customers to be listed as verified callers when they call private people. It can for example be a security company that calls about an alarm or a courier company that needs to get in contact with a receiving customer. It is a common problem that these types of companies get rejected when the call-receiver doesn’t recognize the number. Truecaller declares that their product benefits from network effects. i.e., the product gets better the more people who use it (think Facebook). This can be relatively easy to appreciate since phone number identification inherently evolves from reporting of unwanted calls by the users, i.e., when enough people have reported an unwanted call Truecaller flags for this in the app). Over time, Truecaller has built a database containing 5.7 billion unique phone-identities. Network effects doesn’t just build a better product over time, they also increase the entry-barriers for potential competition. The majority of Truecaller’s income comes from developing countries. The company explains that the problems related to spam emails, harassment, unwanted calls, and messages are more common there than in the western world. India is Truecaller’s largest market where these types of problems are significant. One positive aspect of the geographical exposure is that it allows for a nice structural tailwind: the population growth in developed markets is much higher than in the west (driven by an increasing average age) and the smartphone penetration is growing fast. Historically, 97 percent of all app downloads have been organic. However, management has begun to experiment with user acquisitions by the way of advertisements through, for example, Facebook. The returns on user acquisition looks extremely attractive. In some markets, such as India, Truecaller could achieve a return on investment of up to 20x on every spent dollar. In more mature markets, such as the USA, the same multiple amounts to 4x, still very attractive. Indonesia, which is a relatively new market to the company, has a multiple of 0.8x. This means any user acquisition spend in Indonesia is unprofitable at this point. However, management is confident that the return profile will wander above the 1x as more users join and the network effects take place. In summary, the investment opportunities are plentiful and attractive – and unique. In summary, several things speak for significant growth in the future. The investment in paid user acquisition, a sharpened premium-offer, the newly launched B2B product and continued growth of the advertising business. In addition to this, acquisitions may likely follow. Growth has been prioritized over profitability and it is only recently that the company began to report profits. In 2019 sales grew by 57 percent. In 2020 the corresponding figure was 64 percent, and during the first half of 2021 the company’s sales grew with as much as 151 percent in comparison to the same period last year (which was partly affected by the pandemic). During the first half of this year, the company’s operating margin was 32 percent. As you can imagine, Truecaller is very capital-efficient. Working capital is very low which gives a nice cash conversion and a very high return on capital employed – all attributes that are required to create a very successful and valuable company over time. Truecaller targets a revenue growth of at least 45 percent between 2021-2024e. After 2024 the EBITDA-margin should be at least 35 percent. The sum of the year-on-year growth and the EBITDA-margin should amount to at least 70 percent (a variant of the rule of 40 that tries to balance growth and profitability). We don’t think it will be difficult to reach these targets and the analyst estimates we have looked at are cautious, especially regarding profitability. In our preliminary prognosis for 2023, our EBITDA-estimate is around 16 percent ahead of the analyst estimates that we’ve studied. This is based on that Truecaller can continue to grow sales much faster than hiring new people while the gross margin improves slightly in coming years. The gross margin is an interesting aspect of the equity story. Truecaller’s gross margin amounts to approximately 70 percent. Most of the cost of sales consists of platform fees to Apple and Google. Since Apple and Google practically control the distribution channels for apps together, a duopoly has occurred and prices for app-developers such as Truecaller have remained high around 25-30 percent of sales. This situation is now heavily criticized from all parts of the world since the situation is not considered competitive, for example look at this analysis about an American court ruling concerning a twist between Epic Games and Apple. We believe Google and Apple’s fees will decrease over time – which would be a positive event for Truecaller. Furthermore, Truecaller’s new business deal bypasses Goggle and Apple, which gives a gross margin of close to 100 percent. This will strengthen the profitability even more. There are of course risks associated with the dependence on Google/Apple (which is the case for every company in the application business); the geographical exposure and one should never write off the threat of competition even if it seems far away at this stage. However, we do believe the benefits outweighs the negatives. Truecaller has excellent financial characteristics, operational founders with large shareholdings who will remain active in the business and some of the world’s most well-known investors behind it. We therefore look forward to being included as an anchor investor ahead of the stock exchange listing on October 8th. We are even more excited to follow the company’s successes in current and new markets in the coming years. CVS Group One of the happiest days of the month was when our veterinarian company CVS Group released their interim numbers. Once again, the company beat analysts’ expectations which have been raised several times over the course of the year. In the first two months of the new financial year (which begins in July), the company has grown by 17 percent. This can be compared with the growth expectations for the full year which, before the report release, were 7 percent. Once again, analysts have thus far been “forced” to upgrade their assumptions. In a sour September stock market, the share fell 3 percent. It becomes clear that the positive effect of the pandemic on pet ownership is more tenacious than ever. Pets live for many years, and we believe many underestimated the importance of the large number of new customers during the pandemic. Below is a graph of Google searches for veterinarians in the UK as well as data from the Swedish Board of Agriculture regarding the number of newly registered dogs. We speculate that the UK has similar trends as Sweden. The data points are also positive for our other pet company Swedencare. Pet companies are obviously still hot; right now there’s a bidding war going on over the German pet company Zooplus, where EQT is currently in the lead with the highest bid. We also note that there have been several venture capital-led acquisitions of veterinary companies at higher multiples than CVS is valued at. Source: Jordbruksverket, Coeli Source: Google Trends, Coeli Lindab Since our first investments in Lindab in the autumn of 2019, the thesis has always been that the building systems business segment did not fit into the business and in September, management finally found a buyer for the company. The transaction entails a write-down of goodwill corresponding to SEK 430 million, but it is cash flow neutral. Lindab took the opportunity to update its financial targets; the company now wants to grow by 10 percent per year (of which approximately two thirds are through acquisitions) and reach an operating margin of at least 10 percent (previously 10 percent over a business cycle). The share responded positively to the message. We noted broad insider purchases in Lindab during the month, also from CEO Ola Ringdahl himself, which we think bodes well for the report in October. Despite this the share price decreased 8 percent in September. Victoria We have written several times about the British flooring company Victoria, which in September had a weak share price development of 17 percent. By all accounts, the company is doing well – during the month it was reported that sales rose 70 percent compared to 2020, and 50 percent compared to 2019. If you only partially extrapolate these figures for the rest of the year, it is obvious that analysts’ expectations are too low. We believe that this month’s decline is related to flows: growth companies and small and mid-cap companies were some of the most affected sectors in September – Victoria was hit from both sides. We have increased our position in recent days. The Pebble Group One of the month’s (few) joys was Pebble Group. As we previously wrote, the company is active in the market for gift advertising, i.e. gifts that companies give to customers, employees, and other stakeholders for marketing purposes. In September the company came out with its half-year figures that were better than expected. Pebble’s software division, Facilisgroup, is growing better than our expectations. This is also the part we believe the market is valuing too low. The stock rose 10 percent in September. Knaus Tabbert During the last trading day in September, our German motorhome manufacturer Knaus Tabbert announced that the forecasts for 2021 must be lowered due to component shortages. We are not particularly surprised that this has happened given what we have seen from other vehicle manufacturers. If the company can remedy these supplier problems, management believes that 2022 will be unaffected at best, as Knaus still has a bursting order book, increased production capacity and more suppliers from January next year. The share fell 7 percent in September.
Short positions
The short portfolio contributed with a negative result during the month. Our short-term negative positions in the German DAX had the largest negative contribution. Some stock specific short positions that contributed positively to the result were Swedish Dometic, German Henkel and Norwegian NEL.
Exposure
The net exposure, adjusted for our unlisted holdings, at the beginning and end of the month was 76 and 74 percent, respectively.
Summary
September's negative return of x percent also meant the end of the fund's, so far, longest period of positive return (10 months). We are obviously disappointed with that, but we have been in the game long enough to understand that equities sometimes must fall to be able to refuel and continue their upward trajectory. In general, September was the weakest month for many equities since the crisis started 1.5 years ago. September, otherwise, started strong for us and was a continuation of an unusually good performance at the end of August. Our companies presented many good news (except for Knaus Tabbert on the last day of the month) but small-caps and especially those categorized as growth shares, had a very weak performance during September. The main reason for this was, as previously mentioned, the change in the US long-term interest rate and general "risk off". The picture below shows the development since March last year compared with the corresponding time intervals in the financial crisis in 2009 and onwards. Both periods have shown an unusually strong recovery and the current trend is even stronger than when the financial crisis raged 12 years ago. Source: Goldman Sachs Since the crisis started 1.5 years ago, we have had three different phases. The first and shortest, "despair", showed a decline in prices of 33 percent. The second phase, "hope", ended at the beginning of this year and showed a very strong return of 79 percent despite declining earnings. The last, “growth”, where we are now, has shown +11 percent in share prices with sharply rising growth for companies' earnings, but at lower valuations. Source: Goldman Sachs The recovery for American companies (below) has been extremely strong and compared to 2019, the 2021 profits will be approximately 36 percent higher. Very impressive. Source: Goldman Sachs It is very gratifying that Europe, for once, is keeping up with the United States and showing strong profit growth. Compare this with the non-existent profit growth between 2007–2019 (!) Despite rising equity prices, valuations have fallen and Europe is now trading around 16x the profit 12 months ahead. It's not very strenuous (we think). For an average commercial property, you can get a return of maybe 3 percent before net financial costs. After financing, this corresponds to at least P/E 50x. And paying to lend to different countries does not feel like an exciting alternative either. Source: Goldman Sachs The valuation of global shares in relation to global GDP looks more strained. A major reason for this is the central banks' aggressive policy. The valuation of the major leading technology companies is at an average level seen from the last five years. Source: Goldman Sachs The image below is striking. It shows that Swedish property prices, which have risen by almost 200 percent over the past 15 years, have had the same development as the money supply. In theory, price per m2 and krona is unchanged for the past 15 years. Is there anyone who still doubts that the world's central banks are responsible for the largest wealth creation in human history? It is important to be on the wagon because when it is gone you’ve missed it. And what central banks cannot push, the price of bitcoin for example, rises even more as central banks cannot make more of it. The opportunities for central banks to reverse the band are few. In the long run, this means that the next 10 years will, overall, be a good period for, for example, stock picking. All forms of uniqueness (growth) will be highly valued to compensate for the fact that the value of money decreases at a rapid pace. If there is anyone who is still not convinced, take a look at the picture below. The market capitalization of the S&P500 divided by the Fed's balance sheet…. Source: Bloomberg Onwards and upwards. The wealth of American households is accelerating away from the change in GDP. Thank you Fed and all the world central banks! Citigroup's surprise index has weighed down and analysts' profit estimates are also starting to soften. Not a good combination and it has undoubtedly contributed to the weak development in the stock markets recently. It took a full 219 days for the S&P500 to have a decline of 5 percent. We will see how high the next bar will be.
Timing is everything. A fascinating graph that shows the importance of having reasonable timing in decisions.
Source: Goldman Sachs Despite a difficult month behind us, it feels reasonable to expect a stronger market during the last quarter of the year. Our view is that we are still in a rising market, although we are likely to experience some turbulence for a few more weeks. "Bear markets" are constantly declining with sharp rallies while "bull markets" continue to rise with some strong drawdowns. We therefore believe that we are still in a rising market. Some statistics to cheer you up. The S&P500 managed to rise by 0.2 percent in the third quarter (Europe -1.9 percent) which means six consecutive positive quarters. This has only happened eight times before and only on one of the (eight) occasions has the following quarter yielded a negative return. Two quarters later, it has in all cases yielded a positive return. In addition, for the past 20 years, October has been the fourth best month, thus much better than its reputation. Having pointed that out, October takes first place in terms of most frequent daily movements that exceed one percent. The Stockholm Stock Exchange, which is an excellent reference point, had risen by 30 percent at its highest about a month ago, but is currently at 20 percent. Even more important is that measured in USD, OMX has "only" risen by 13 percent, which is in line with the US stock markets. This is hardly excessive given the profit growth among the companies. The risk premium in the market is high. Investors are reasonably careless, and we are approaching the turn of the year. Global growth is well above average and interest rates are extremely low. Given how cruel the market has been to many investors this year, with sector rotations and a high concentration of companies driving performance, it almost feels obvious that the broad mass of investors will continue to reduce risk in their portfolios and then be short equities at year-end when the market rises. We'll see, but that's our main scenario right now.
We are now closing the books for the third quarter, and we look forward to the end of the year and above all the entrance for Truecaller on the Stockholm Stock Exchange on October 8! Thank you for this month and we'll hear from you later.   Mikael & Team Malmö on 5 October [/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund R-SEK" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" module_class="gen-table-module" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]

Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund

Performance in Share Class Currency1 MthYTD3 yrsSince incep
Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund - R SEK1.30%-0.93%3.38%14.52%
[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund R-SEK" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" module_class="gen-table-module" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"] [cg_linear_graph id="31122"] [/et_pb_text][et_pb_image _builder_version="3.0.89" src="https://coeli.com/wp-content/uploads//2020/10/ncbr.png" show_in_lightbox="off" url_new_window="off" use_overlay="off" always_center_on_mobile="on" force_fullwidth="off" show_bottom_space="on" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on" /][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type="1_3"][et_pb_image _builder_version="3.0.89" src="https://coeli.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Gustav-Fransson6.jpg" show_in_lightbox="off" url_new_window="off" use_overlay="off" always_center_on_mobile="on" force_fullwidth="off" show_bottom_space="on" custom_margin="||21px|" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on" /][et_pb_text admin_label="Namn och title" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" module_class="gen-single-ingress-module" custom_margin="||40px|" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]

Gustav Fransson

Portfolio Manager of Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund [/et_pb_text][et_pb_image _builder_version="3.0.89" src="https://coeli.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Alexander-Larsson-Vahlman.jpg" show_in_lightbox="off" url_new_window="off" use_overlay="off" always_center_on_mobile="on" force_fullwidth="off" show_bottom_space="on" custom_margin="||21px|" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on" /][et_pb_text admin_label="Namn och title" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" module_class="gen-single-ingress-module" custom_margin="||40px|" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]

Alexander Wahlman

Senior Analyst [/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Fund Overview" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" custom_margin="||20px|" module_class="gen-trustee-single-table"]
Fund Overview
Inception Date2017-12-20
Investment management fee (share class I SEK)1.00% p.a + 20% Performance fee (OMRX T-Bill Index)
Performance Fee. Yes20%
Risk category5 of 7
[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Top Holdings (%)" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" custom_margin="||20px|" module_class="gen-trustee-single-table" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]
Top Holdings (%)
LANSBK 1.25% 18-17.09.254.1%
NORDEA HYP 1.0% 19-17.09.25 4.1%
SWEDBK 1.0% 19-18.06.254.1%
WHITE MOUNT FRN 17-22.09.473.9%
B2 HOLDING FRN 19-28.05.242.9%
  [/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built="1" fullwidth="off" specialty="off" _builder_version="3.0.89" module_class="gen-trustee-single-yield-section gen-pattern-section" custom_padding="0px|||"][et_pb_row _builder_version="3.0.89" custom_padding="||53px|"][et_pb_column type="4_4"][et_pb_text admin_label="VIKTIG INFORMATION" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" module_class="gen-trustee-single-warning-blurb"] IMPORTANT INFORMATION. This is a marketing communication. Before making any final investment decisions, please refer to the prospectus of Coeli SICAV II, its Annual Report, and the PRIIP of the relevant Sub-Fund. Relevant information documents are available in English at coeli.com. A summary of investor rights will be available at https://coeli.com/regulatory-information-coeli-asset-management-ab/. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The price of the investment may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount originally invested. [/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section]

Här anger du om du är privat eller institutionell investerare.

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Den sammanfattande riskindikatorn ger en vägledning om risknivån för denna produkt jämfört med andra produkter. Den visar hur troligt det är att produkten kommer att sjunka i värde på grund av marknadsutvecklingen. Indikatorn speglar framför allt upp- och nedgångar i de aktier fonden placerat i. Denna produkt innehåller inte något skydd mot framtida marknadsresultat. Du kan därför förlora hela eller delar av din investering. Förutom de risker som ingår i riskindikatorn kan andra risker påverka fondens resultat. Se fondens fondbestämmelse för mer information.

Morningstars fondbetyg (rating) är ett mått som går att använda för att se hur fonderna har presterat historiskt. Fonden får ett högre betyg om den har haft en bra avkastning i förhållande till fondens risknivå. En fond måste ha funnits i minst 3 år för att få ett totalt betyg. Har fonden funnits längre än 5 och 10 år får dessutom betyg för dessa tidsperioder. Morningstars hållbarhetsbetyg är ett mått på de ekonomiskt väsentliga riskerna inom miljö, socialt och ägarfrågor (ESG) i en portfölj relativt till liknande konkurrerande portföljer. Hållbarhetsbetyget beräknas för fonder, förvaltningsuppdrag och index globalt, med hjälp av Morningstars databas med portföljinnehav.