


The Coeli Renewable Opportunities fund generated a profit of 5.9% net of fees and expenses in June. It is up 7.9% since the inception on February 6, 2023.
The fund has outperformed the most comparable indices, the Wilderhill New Energy Global index (NEX) by 19.1% and the iShares Global Clean Energy (ICLN) by 16.5% since inception. During June, the fund outperformed the NEX and ICLN by 0.8% and 4.9%, respectively.
In June, all but one of the fund’s 10 themes contributed positively to the performance. The ‘Diversified Renewables’ theme accounted for about half of the return, but the ‘Grid’ theme, ‘Solar’ and the two renewable development themes also did well. We are also pleased that short contribution was positive by 0.4% of NAV in a month where the market rallied. The net exposure was around 60-65% for most of the month but was scaled down to 55% by the end of the month. Gross exposure at the month end was 106%.
At the half year mark, it is a good time to review the performance since the fund launch in early February. The short side has so far contributed to two thirds of the returns, which is not unexpected considering that renewable energy stocks have mostly declined. However, we are pleased that our shorts generated approximately 15% on the invested short capital while the renewable energy indices are down by about 10% in the same period. It is also encouraging that we made close to 3% of NAV on the longs despite the poor performance in this space. In total, as our net exposure has averaged about 50%, you can argue that alpha generation is about 12-13% in the first five months. More detailed information on the fund's performance can be found below.
MARKET COMMENT – TRADING A GOLDILOCKS ECONOMY?
June was a very strong month for the markets as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained 6.5%, taking the half year return to 16% and 39%, respectively. Historically, based on data since 1928, the S&P in the second half of the year goes up more than 10% when the first half rallies by more than 15%.
However, there are still lingering concerns on the horizon. Despite the Federal Reserve (FED) pausing its interest rate hikes in June, Chairman Powell has indicated that two more hikes might be necessary this year. While there are signs of inflation receding, the pace of decline is clearly not fast enough for the FED’s liking. Two months ago, the bond market anticipated three interest rate cuts by the FED this year, while today an additional hike is priced in for July and the first cut is not expected before mid-2024. Higher for longer has become consensus, and as the 2-year US bond returned to its levels before the mini-banking crisis in March, the yield curve has inverted to a level that has historically been associated with an impending recession.
Moreover, the manufacturing PMIs both in the US and globally have dipped into contractionary territory and from the amount of profit warnings from early-cyclical industry the last weeks, it is obvious that the economy is facing some challenges.
Finally, while sentiment and positioning were bearish and very light just a few months ago, these have now shifted to the opposite extreme. Numerous sentiment indicators show investor sentiment levels at ‘extreme greed’ and hedge fund gross leverage is at high levels not witnessed in years.
On the other hand, the reason why the bond market is no longer expecting FED cuts this year is a diminished risk of recession. Given that many experts were anticipating at least a mild economic downturn, it is no wonder that negative sentiment and bearish positioning dominated the market throughout the year. One could argue that the potential for a recession had already been factored into market pricing, and as that risk has diminished, the subsequent rally in stocks is justified.
Also, most economic activity indicators are in fact surprising to the upside. The consumer confidence just hit a new high for the year and the labour market remains incredible resilient. Despite easing wage growth, which bodes well for inflation expectations, surveys show that US consumers have in aggregate increasing spending power.
Company earnings have so far also exceeded expectations. Most top-down analysts expected or are still expecting a significant drop in aggregate profit margins. Although reported and bottom-up earnings estimates are decreasing, they are declining much slower than initially feared.
As we have learned many times in the past, but often seem to forget, the market is a pricing mechanism and what truly matters is not if the data comes in positive or negative, but if it comes in better or worse than what was expected and what was priced in.
In conclusion, the market appears to be embracing a "Goldilocks" economy—characterized by moderate growth and controlled inflation. While we maintain our view that market valuations, particularly relative to real yields, are stretched, it is important to note that rich valuations alone have never been enough to trigger a market downturn. Furthermore, the market seems poised to weather one or two additional interest rate hikes, supported by the potential for significant productivity improvements promised by artificial intelligence. As a result, the positive sentiment could persist in the short term.
RENEWABLE ENERGY - Will green hydrogen deliver on its promise of decarbonization?
There is a lot of hype surrounding green hydrogen, with claims that it is a magical solution for decarbonizing heavy transportation, steel production, and cement manufacturing. While hydrogen is versatile, like a Swiss army knife, it is not necessarily the best at any specific task.
Green hydrogen faces additional challenges, but one of the most significant ones is its energy efficiency, or rather the lack of it. When converting renewable electricity to hydrogen, approximately 30% of the energy is lost in the process. Furthermore, if the end-use is for mobility, the fuel cell, which converts hydrogen back into electricity for the electric motors, incurs another 30-40% energy loss. This means that more than half of the clean energy is lost. In comparison, fully electric mobility experiences total energy losses of less than 10%.
Despite these efficiency concerns, the European Union remains optimistic about hydrogen as a key driver of decarbonization. Similarly, in the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers attractive credits to hydrogen producers who can minimize emissions. While we still await specific details from the IRS on the IRA, the basic premise is clear—the tax credits are strictly tied to emission targets during hydrogen production, without considering its end-use.
To qualify for the maximum credit, a staggering $3 per kilogram of hydrogen produced, emissions must be a mere 0.45 kg of CO2 per kg of hydrogen, or less. However, current hydrogen production relies heavily on steam methane reforming, which emits around 10 kg of CO2 for every kg of hydrogen. This means that when the US government pays $3/kg for hydrogen with CO2 emissions below 0.45 kg, the implied carbon abatement cost is more than $300/tonne. In comparison, transitioning from coal to natural gas costs less than $50/tonne of CO2. To make it worse, keep in mind that there could be additional costs depending on how the hydrogen is consumed.
Another critical aspect to consider is the concept of "additionality" – is the renewable energy generation truly new – i.e. additional? Will producers of green hydrogen be required to utilize only new renewable power sources to collect subsidises, or can they simply tap into the existing grid or purchase electricity from already established renewable plants? If only new renewable energy can be utilised for green hydrogen production, the costs and risks will be significantly higher, and mass production of green hydrogen will surely take more time.
On the other hand, if producers can connect to the grid or utilise existing renewable energy, we would essentially be diverting clean power from its original consumption, forcing fossil fuel plants to increase output to meet the rising demand. This of course undermines the overall decarbonization effort. The solution, both in the EU and in the US, should probably be to allow some usage of existing renewable energy during a relatively short transition period.
There is no doubt that there are many challenges on hydrogen’s path to success and this is where our fund's perspective becomes relevant. We strongly support the energy transition, but we recognize that it will be expensive and there are significant risks of misallocation of resources. This could have dire consequences, not only economically but also in the loss of public trust and support of the energy transition. That is why our investment strategy focuses not only on finding technologies and companies with the greatest potential for decarbonization, but it also aims to take short positions in those that divert capital and expertise down the wrong path. Within the hydrogen sub-sector, we believe there are some companies with solutions that fit that description. We will explore this further as we sum up the performance since inception below.
FUND PERFORMANCE – STRONG JUNE AND GOOD PERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION
The fund returned 5.9% (I USD) in June with nine out ten themes profitable. The largest contributor by far was ‘Diversified Renewables’ adding 2.9% to NAV. This theme holds only one long position, Chart Industries (GTLS), our largest position currently and top two since inception. We have discussed the investment case for this company in previous monthly letters and we were waiting for the stock to break out, which happened in June when the stock rose more than 40%.
The second-best performing theme was ‘Grid’ adding 0.8% to the NAV. This is a theme with three long positions in companies focused on grid connection and transmission. In our March monthly letter, we discussed the increasing demand for transmission and distribution grid to support the energy transition. Grid connections and capacity are likely the next bottlenecks as we electrify our economy and huge investments are required going forward. We believe we are still in the early innings of this development.
Our largest theme ‘Solar’ also did well in June, adding 0.7% to NAV despite both of our inverter companies, SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) performing poorly following continued speculation that Tesla (TSLA) will eat into their market share as it is using its strong hold on batteries to win market share for its inverter offering. While we acknowledge that Tesla may capture some market share through the discounts on their batteries, we believe this is already partly factored into the share prices of both ENPH and SEDG. Nevertheless, we have lowered our exposure to the two stocks as they could continue to underperform as the rumors gain more widespread attention.
The only losing theme in June was ‘Wind’, deducting 0.2% from NAV. The largest holding, Vestas Wind Systems (VWS DC) was pulled down by a major profit warning by Siemens Energy (ENR GY), the owner of Siemens Gamesa, the largest competitor of Vestas. The main reason for the profit warning was vibration issues on approximately 15-30% of Gamesa’s most recently installed onshore wind turbines. The cost to rectify the issue could come to more than EUR 1bn. To us and most experts, this seems to be a company specific issue and if anything, it might be a positive for Vestas and other competitors as Gamesa becomes a less attractive supplier until ENR has worked through these issues. On the other hand, Vestas had similar, although much smaller, issues in the past. This serves as a reminder to the market of the inherent risks associated with the construction of increasingly larger wind turbines.
At the half year mark, it makes sense to sum up what has worked well and what has not worked since inception in early February. Eight out of eleven themes have made a positive contribution. As we said in the introduction, two thirds of the almost 8% performance stems from the short side while our long positions managed to generate a profit of close to 3% of NAV. This implies a return of approximately 4% on our invested long capital, which can be compared to a roughly 10% decline for the two most comparable renewable indices/ETFs, the NEX and ICLN.
The largest contributor in absolute terms was ‘Solar’, adding about 3% to NAV. As we have mentioned in every monthly report, this theme has been skewed long and has also been allocated the largest share of capital. Not all our investments in Solar have worked as planned, but we are still pleased with the positive performance as the TAN, the most comparable Solar index/ETF, has declined by 10% since our fund’s inception.
The largest losing theme was ‘US Renewable Development’ drawing down NAV by 0.9% since inception. The theme consists of the two leading energy transition utility companies in the US, Nextera Energy (NEE) and AES Corp (AES). Basically, all of the loss can be attributed to May when AES issued growth targets slightly below the market’s expectations. As outlined in detail in last month’s report, these revised targets were a result of the company’s accelerated coal exit plan. However, we believe this strategic shift will ultimately enhance AES’s valuation multiple. Moreover, with the incredible wave of capital being made available for renewable development in the US, we are confident that the two leading companies with the most experience and scale will do well.
Finally, we have two hydrogen themes, one for European companies and one for US listed names. As can be inferred from the previous part of this monthly, our stance on certain hydrogen players has been relatively negative for some time, resulting in a skewed short position for both themes. Interestingly, if we were to merge the two themes, the combined profit surpasses that of our ‘Solar’ theme. However, gross combined capital has only been about one-third of our investment in the solar sector. Despite the higher risk associated with shorting at times less liquid small-cap companies in the dynamic field of hydrogen, the returns from our short hydrogen themes are far superior to what we have made in ‘Solar’.
All in all, the first five months of the fund’s performance have been good. Our aim is to create alpha on both the long and the short side and so far, we have been successful. We are still confident that the energy transition is the largest investment theme of at least the next decade. We struggle to find any sector with such unique tailwinds. Obviously, if you have read this far in, you understand that not every company will flourish and there is value in being able to take selective short positions. That is at least our firm belief.
We look forward to updating you again next month.
Sincerely,
Vidar Kalvoy & Joel Etzler
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| Performance in Share Class Currency | 1 Mth | YTD | 3 yrs | Since incep |
| Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund - R SEK | 1.30% | -0.93% | 3.38% | 14.52% |
| LANSBK 1.25% 18-17.09.25 | 4.1% |
| NORDEA HYP 1.0% 19-17.09.25 | 4.1% |
| SWEDBK 1.0% 19-18.06.25 | 4.1% |
| WHITE MOUNT FRN 17-22.09.47 | 3.9% |
| B2 HOLDING FRN 19-28.05.24 | 2.9% |
Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities
[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Popup" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" module_class="gen-pop-up-module" border_style_all="solid" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities
[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Popup" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" module_class="gen-pop-up-module" border_style_all="solid" disabled_on="on|on|on" disabled="on"]Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities
[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Popup" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" module_class="gen-pop-up-module" disabled_on="off|off|off" disabled="off" border_style_all="solid"]Joel Etzler is Portfolio Manager and Founder of the Coeli Renewable Opportunities fund and has more than 13 years in the industry, with investment experience from both the public and private equity side. Etzler joined Kalvoy at Horizon Asset in London in 2012 and spent five years before that within Private Equity at Morgan Stanley. Etzler started his investment career within the technology sector at Swedbank Robur in Stockholm, 2006.
[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type="1_2"][et_pb_blurb admin_label="Vidar" _builder_version="3.0.89" url_new_window="off" use_icon="off" use_circle="off" use_circle_border="off" icon_placement="top" use_icon_font_size="off" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" image="https://coeli.se/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Vidar-Kalvoy.jpg" animation="off" text_orientation="center" header_text_align="center" body_text_align="center" alt="Portfolio Manager Vidar Kalvoy" border_style_all="solid"]Portfolio Manager Coeli Renewable Opportunities
[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label="Popup" _builder_version="3.0.89" background_layout="light" border_style="solid" module_class="gen-pop-up-module" disabled_on="off|off|off" disabled="off" border_style_all="solid"]

The news flow in September began with record high inflation figures in Europe at +3.0 which exceeded market expectations. The corresponding figure in July was + 2.2 percent. It was the fastest growth rate since November 2011 and several countries recorded up to five percent in inflation rate. The pressure on the ECB to reduce its support measures is increasing. On Friday, October 1, new inflation figures came in for September, which showed a further acceleration in the inflation rate by +3.4 per cent.
The rate of change can be mostly attributed to rising energy prices that are starting to create real problems in the world's economies as well as agricultural shifts. The picture below shows that food prices are at record high levels over the past 60 years. The biggest losers are the poorest part of the population.
In the slightly longer term it is forecasted that it is not excessive demand that will drive inflation, but rather a limited supply, and then both in terms of products and labour. At the end of September, long queues were reported at petrol stations across the UK when fuel ran out and there were not enough truck drivers to refuel. Prime Minister Boris Johnson urges his citizens to refuel sensibly and at a normal rate. You wanted Brexit, so there you go. In sheer desperation, Johnson has now issued 5,000 temporary short-term visas for temporary drivers. Good luck.
M25 spring 2022?
Below are European gas prices which have risen in a seemingly uncontrolled fashion and recorded the highest September prices ever. A silent prayer for the mild winter. We guess that this development will soon be a major topic in the media, and it will undoubtedly create various problems and somewhat reduce next year's expected growth. It feels reassuring that Per Bolund (Swedish Green Party MP) claims that there is no electricity shortage in Sweden because then the costs for ordinary people would be unbearably high during the winter (which of course they will be). Rising gas and electricity prices have led European politicians to start discussing billion-dollar subsidies (in euros) to households and manufacturers who will experience sharply rising electricity bills over the winter.
Source: Bloomberg
Henrik Svensson, site manager at the oil-fired power plant in Karlshamn (south Sweden), does not agree with Per Bolund that we have a surplus of electricity in the country. For large parts of September, the power plant ran at full capacity and burned 240k liters of oil per hour. Henrik Svensson believes that it is electricity shortages and high electricity prices that are behind the high production. He also says that there is a lack of planned power production in southern Sweden and that it will take many years before the electricity grid is strengthened and new electricity production is in place. Sweden today burns more oil than we have done in 10 years. A gigantic energy policy and climate policy failure signed by the Green Party.
Source: Steget efter
Winning candidate for this year's Christmas presents below.
The change in the US 10-year interest rate created considerable pressure on, primarily, growth stocks at the end of the month. The performance dispersion for different sectors was very large in September with oil shares as a clear winner. This was also felt in the last days of September.
Source: Bloomberg
Below is the development for the US 10-year interest rate. The turbulence in the stock market was caused by the change in interest rate level breaking through on the upside, as can be seen in the chart.
There have been countless attempts to explain the turbulence in recent weeks. The recent and significant amount of options being exercised, Evergrande, interventions by the Chinese government, Fed tapering, Bank of England expected to raise interest rates, delta variant, inflation, bottlenecks in production, difficulties in finding staff, rising energy prices and declining growth rates. We think it is enough to look at the picture below. Rising interest rates hit hard at growth companies' valuations.
Goodbye Mutti and thank you for an extraordinary effort for Europe!
Source: Nyhetsbyrån TT
She was politically in a class of her own during the euro crisis ten years ago and Sweden also has her to thank for a lot. Despite a somewhat weaker performance in recent years, German citizens have experienced significantly better economic development than many others.
On September 29, the covid-19 restrictions in Sweden were finally removed and we can now, in principle, start living a normal life again. The number of bookings for winter holidays skyrocketed to the great joy of the tourist and transport industry. In recent months, tourism activity in the Mediterranean has been "extraordinary" and much better than forecasted before the summer. Luxury travel is also reaching new heights. Private jet passengers to Mallorca increased by +70 percent in July compared to July 2019 with an average of 83 private jets per day landing in Palma. If you want to rent a yacht, you are being referred to next year as basically everything has already been fully booked.
We now belong to a minority group. Passively managed capital exceeds actively managed capital for the first time ever. This will give us more opportunities as mispricing increases.
In addition to being one of the world's best stock markets this year, Sweden also has the most listed companies in the entire EU. Bloomberg drew attention to the fact that there are now around 1,000 listed companies on the various trading platforms in Stockholm. More than 80 percent are smaller companies, and the list is filled with new listings every day until Christmas! For us, it is interesting as we are constantly looking for new potential core holdings. In recent weeks, we have identified one which we write about under Long Positions.
We end this section with a picture that well reflects today's political level.
Source: Kluddniklas
Until recently, revenue streams have mainly consisted of income from in-app advertising. In addition to this, there is a premium version where paying users can get additional functionalities. That business accounted for around 20 percent of revenues in 2020. During the fall of 2020, Truecaller launched a corresponding offering that targets corporates. This part of the business allows B2B customers to be listed as verified callers when they call private people. It can for example be a security company that calls about an alarm or a courier company that needs to get in contact with a receiving customer. It is a common problem that these types of companies get rejected when the call-receiver doesn’t recognize the number.
Truecaller declares that their product benefits from network effects. i.e., the product gets better the more people who use it (think Facebook). This can be relatively easy to appreciate since phone number identification inherently evolves from reporting of unwanted calls by the users, i.e., when enough people have reported an unwanted call Truecaller flags for this in the app). Over time, Truecaller has built a database containing 5.7 billion unique phone-identities. Network effects doesn’t just build a better product over time, they also increase the entry-barriers for potential competition.
The majority of Truecaller’s income comes from developing countries. The company explains that the problems related to spam emails, harassment, unwanted calls, and messages are more common there than in the western world. India is Truecaller’s largest market where these types of problems are significant. One positive aspect of the geographical exposure is that it allows for a nice structural tailwind: the population growth in developed markets is much higher than in the west (driven by an increasing average age) and the smartphone penetration is growing fast.
Historically, 97 percent of all app downloads have been organic. However, management has begun to experiment with user acquisitions by the way of advertisements through, for example, Facebook. The returns on user acquisition looks extremely attractive. In some markets, such as India, Truecaller could achieve a return on investment of up to 20x on every spent dollar. In more mature markets, such as the USA, the same multiple amounts to 4x, still very attractive. Indonesia, which is a relatively new market to the company, has a multiple of 0.8x. This means any user acquisition spend in Indonesia is unprofitable at this point. However, management is confident that the return profile will wander above the 1x as more users join and the network effects take place. In summary, the investment opportunities are plentiful and attractive – and unique.
In summary, several things speak for significant growth in the future. The investment in paid user acquisition, a sharpened premium-offer, the newly launched B2B product and continued growth of the advertising business. In addition to this, acquisitions may likely follow.
Growth has been prioritized over profitability and it is only recently that the company began to report profits. In 2019 sales grew by 57 percent. In 2020 the corresponding figure was 64 percent, and during the first half of 2021 the company’s sales grew with as much as 151 percent in comparison to the same period last year (which was partly affected by the pandemic). During the first half of this year, the company’s operating margin was 32 percent. As you can imagine, Truecaller is very capital-efficient. Working capital is very low which gives a nice cash conversion and a very high return on capital employed – all attributes that are required to create a very successful and valuable company over time.
Truecaller targets a revenue growth of at least 45 percent between 2021-2024e. After 2024 the EBITDA-margin should be at least 35 percent. The sum of the year-on-year growth and the EBITDA-margin should amount to at least 70 percent (a variant of the rule of 40 that tries to balance growth and profitability). We don’t think it will be difficult to reach these targets and the analyst estimates we have looked at are cautious, especially regarding profitability. In our preliminary prognosis for 2023, our EBITDA-estimate is around 16 percent ahead of the analyst estimates that we’ve studied. This is based on that Truecaller can continue to grow sales much faster than hiring new people while the gross margin improves slightly in coming years.
The gross margin is an interesting aspect of the equity story. Truecaller’s gross margin amounts to approximately 70 percent. Most of the cost of sales consists of platform fees to Apple and Google. Since Apple and Google practically control the distribution channels for apps together, a duopoly has occurred and prices for app-developers such as Truecaller have remained high around 25-30 percent of sales. This situation is now heavily criticized from all parts of the world since the situation is not considered competitive, for example look at this analysis about an American court ruling concerning a twist between Epic Games and Apple. We believe Google and Apple’s fees will decrease over time – which would be a positive event for Truecaller. Furthermore, Truecaller’s new business deal bypasses Goggle and Apple, which gives a gross margin of close to 100 percent. This will strengthen the profitability even more.
There are of course risks associated with the dependence on Google/Apple (which is the case for every company in the application business); the geographical exposure and one should never write off the threat of competition even if it seems far away at this stage. However, we do believe the benefits outweighs the negatives. Truecaller has excellent financial characteristics, operational founders with large shareholdings who will remain active in the business and some of the world’s most well-known investors behind it. We therefore look forward to being included as an anchor investor ahead of the stock exchange listing on October 8th. We are even more excited to follow the company’s successes in current and new markets in the coming years.
CVS Group
One of the happiest days of the month was when our veterinarian company CVS Group released their interim numbers. Once again, the company beat analysts’ expectations which have been raised several times over the course of the year. In the first two months of the new financial year (which begins in July), the company has grown by 17 percent. This can be compared with the growth expectations for the full year which, before the report release, were 7 percent. Once again, analysts have thus far been “forced” to upgrade their assumptions. In a sour September stock market, the share fell 3 percent.
It becomes clear that the positive effect of the pandemic on pet ownership is more tenacious than ever. Pets live for many years, and we believe many underestimated the importance of the large number of new customers during the pandemic. Below is a graph of Google searches for veterinarians in the UK as well as data from the Swedish Board of Agriculture regarding the number of newly registered dogs. We speculate that the UK has similar trends as Sweden. The data points are also positive for our other pet company Swedencare. Pet companies are obviously still hot; right now there’s a bidding war going on over the German pet company Zooplus, where EQT is currently in the lead with the highest bid. We also note that there have been several venture capital-led acquisitions of veterinary companies at higher multiples than CVS is valued at.
Source: Jordbruksverket, Coeli
Source: Google Trends, Coeli
Lindab
Since our first investments in Lindab in the autumn of 2019, the thesis has always been that the building systems business segment did not fit into the business and in September, management finally found a buyer for the company. The transaction entails a write-down of goodwill corresponding to SEK 430 million, but it is cash flow neutral. Lindab took the opportunity to update its financial targets; the company now wants to grow by 10 percent per year (of which approximately two thirds are through acquisitions) and reach an operating margin of at least 10 percent (previously 10 percent over a business cycle). The share responded positively to the message.
We noted broad insider purchases in Lindab during the month, also from CEO Ola Ringdahl himself, which we think bodes well for the report in October. Despite this the share price decreased 8 percent in September.
Victoria
We have written several times about the British flooring company Victoria, which in September had a weak share price development of 17 percent. By all accounts, the company is doing well – during the month it was reported that sales rose 70 percent compared to 2020, and 50 percent compared to 2019. If you only partially extrapolate these figures for the rest of the year, it is obvious that analysts’ expectations are too low. We believe that this month’s decline is related to flows: growth companies and small and mid-cap companies were some of the most affected sectors in September – Victoria was hit from both sides. We have increased our position in recent days.
The Pebble Group
One of the month’s (few) joys was Pebble Group. As we previously wrote, the company is active in the market for gift advertising, i.e. gifts that companies give to customers, employees, and other stakeholders for marketing purposes. In September the company came out with its half-year figures that were better than expected. Pebble’s software division, Facilisgroup, is growing better than our expectations. This is also the part we believe the market is valuing too low. The stock rose 10 percent in September.
Knaus Tabbert
During the last trading day in September, our German motorhome manufacturer Knaus Tabbert announced that the forecasts for 2021 must be lowered due to component shortages. We are not particularly surprised that this has happened given what we have seen from other vehicle manufacturers. If the company can remedy these supplier problems, management believes that 2022 will be unaffected at best, as Knaus still has a bursting order book, increased production capacity and more suppliers from January next year. The share fell 7 percent in September.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Since the crisis started 1.5 years ago, we have had three different phases. The first and shortest, "despair", showed a decline in prices of 33 percent. The second phase, "hope", ended at the beginning of this year and showed a very strong return of 79 percent despite declining earnings. The last, “growth”, where we are now, has shown +11 percent in share prices with sharply rising growth for companies' earnings, but at lower valuations.
Source: Goldman Sachs
The recovery for American companies (below) has been extremely strong and compared to 2019, the 2021 profits will be approximately 36 percent higher. Very impressive.
Source: Goldman Sachs
It is very gratifying that Europe, for once, is keeping up with the United States and showing strong profit growth. Compare this with the non-existent profit growth between 2007–2019 (!)
Despite rising equity prices, valuations have fallen and Europe is now trading around 16x the profit 12 months ahead. It's not very strenuous (we think). For an average commercial property, you can get a return of maybe 3 percent before net financial costs. After financing, this corresponds to at least P/E 50x. And paying to lend to different countries does not feel like an exciting alternative either.
Source: Goldman Sachs
The valuation of global shares in relation to global GDP looks more strained. A major reason for this is the central banks' aggressive policy.
The valuation of the major leading technology companies is at an average level seen from the last five years.
Source: Goldman Sachs
The image below is striking. It shows that Swedish property prices, which have risen by almost 200 percent over the past 15 years, have had the same development as the money supply. In theory, price per m2 and krona is unchanged for the past 15 years. Is there anyone who still doubts that the world's central banks are responsible for the largest wealth creation in human history? It is important to be on the wagon because when it is gone you’ve missed it. And what central banks cannot push, the price of bitcoin for example, rises even more as central banks cannot make more of it. The opportunities for central banks to reverse the band are few. In the long run, this means that the next 10 years will, overall, be a good period for, for example, stock picking. All forms of uniqueness (growth) will be highly valued to compensate for the fact that the value of money decreases at a rapid pace.
If there is anyone who is still not convinced, take a look at the picture below. The market capitalization of the S&P500 divided by the Fed's balance sheet….
Source: Bloomberg
Onwards and upwards. The wealth of American households is accelerating away from the change in GDP.
Thank you Fed and all the world central banks!
Citigroup's surprise index has weighed down and analysts' profit estimates are also starting to soften. Not a good combination and it has undoubtedly contributed to the weak development in the stock markets recently.
It took a full 219 days for the S&P500 to have a decline of 5 percent. We will see how high the next bar will be.



| Performance in Share Class Currency | 1 Mth | YTD | 3 yrs | Since incep |
| Coeli Nordic Corporate Bond Fund - R SEK | 1.30% | -0.93% | 3.38% | 14.52% |
| Inception Date | 2017-12-20 |
| Investment management fee (share class I SEK) | 1.00% p.a + 20% Performance fee (OMRX T-Bill Index) |
| Performance Fee. Yes | 20% |
| Risk category | 5 of 7 |
| LANSBK 1.25% 18-17.09.25 | 4.1% |
| NORDEA HYP 1.0% 19-17.09.25 | 4.1% |
| SWEDBK 1.0% 19-18.06.25 | 4.1% |
| WHITE MOUNT FRN 17-22.09.47 | 3.9% |
| B2 HOLDING FRN 19-28.05.24 | 2.9% |